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US Dollar stays in seller’s market


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Daily Forex Market Report 10-Jan-2023: US Dollar stays in seller’s market, EURO gains against the Pound

There’s a slight disconnect forming in the currency markets between investors and the US Federal Reserve.

On the one hand, traders seem to be factoring in a cheaper US dollar in the wake of last’s week’s non-farm payroll data, which showed an easing up of wage growth; ostensibly a sign of easing inflationary pressures that could herald a more dovish approach to interest rates.

On the other hand, the US Federal Reserve has made few overtures to a lower terminal rate. Rather, Fed minutes released yesterday saw several members warning against loosening monetary policy given their historical experience.

Perhaps Thursday’s US inflation reading will give more clarity to the macro situation.

Against this backdrop, the US Dollar Index (DXY) closed at a seven-month low of 102.79, though it has since seen a small rebound to 102.94 this morning.

Cable added 60 pips to close the Monday session at 1.218. GBP/USD cuts back after strong Monday gains – Source: dailyfx.com GBP/USD cuts back after strong Monday gains – Source: dailyfx.com

Cable but has since shed a third of those pips this morning, bringing the pair back to 1.215, though the pair still remains comfortably above the 20-day moving average.

EUR/USD closed at seven-month highs of 1.073, where it has so far remained this morning.

The euro is also seeing its third straight session of gains against the pound after rebounding off the 20-day moving average on Sunday.

While it was a pretty volatile session, EUR/GBP closed higher at 88.08p and has climbed another 0.2% higher to 88.24p this morning.

What does FX Risk/Exposure mean?

There are three types of foreign exchange exposure companies face:

  1. Economic exposure
  2. Conversion exposure
  3. Transaction exposure

In short, FX/forex (foreign Exchange) exposure means the risk that an individual or company takes when executing transactions in foreign currencies.

If a business is looking to make transactions globally or in multiple currencies, it's important that they first identify their exposure to risk in order to put a calculated risk management strategy in place.

FX Risk/Exposure Management - How does it work?

Volatile currency markets can have a huge impact on your profits.

Let say that you set a 2021 price for a product, bought in USD including a 5% profit margin, based on the exchange rate when the pound was strongest.

When the pound weakened, your profit margin would soon erode, and leave you with -2.5% profit - based on the same price, from stock bought at the dollar’s peak.

This fluctuation in price could force you to either absorb the loss or increase your prices, with the knock-on effect of untenable prices in your already competitive market.

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We know that it can be time-consuming and challenging to keep up with the innumerable ongoing events that continuously affect the global market mood.

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